Blog

April 24, 2025

Ahoy, mates.

The seas of commerce are churning once more. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded the alarm, warning that President Trump’s recent tariff policies are delivering a “major negative shock” to the global economy. Their latest outlook downgrades global GDP growth to 2.8%, with the U.S. economy projected to slow to 1.8%. These tariffs, reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, are causing businesses to cut investments and tightening credit conditions.

Back in the 18th century, similar economic strife unfolded. The British Crown’s imposition of the Stamp Act in 1765 and the Townshend Acts in 1767 burdened the American colonies with taxes on paper goods, glass, and tea. These measures aimed to recoup debts from the Seven Years’ War but instead ignited widespread dissent, culminating in events like the Boston Tea Party.

Today, the modern equivalents of these policies are causing ripples across industries. Tech giants are reevaluating investments, and consumers are feeling the pinch as prices rise. The parallels to the past are striking: economic policies intended to strengthen the nation are instead sowing discord and uncertainty.

As your old pal Sam might say, “When the tide turns against ye, it’s wise to adjust your sails.” Keep a weather eye on the horizon, for the currents of history often repeat themselves.

Until next tide,

– Sam Mason, still watchin’ the river

🗞️ Sources:

IMF warns of ‘major negative shock’ from Trump’s tariffs – The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/22/imf-major-negative-shock-trump-tariffs-uk Here’s why these 4 top economists say a recession is now likely – Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/economists-strategists-weigh-in-recession-odds-2025-4 Tariffs to trigger sharp US economic slowdown, chance of recession jumps to 45% – Reuters https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tariffs-trigger-sharp-us-economic-slowdown-chance-recession-jumps-45-2025-04-17/